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smuhakg 1 days ago [-]
Copilot is the worst AI agent on the market. Over 50% of people I've spoken to that say AI is overhyped, when pressed, admit they were only using Copilot.
This would be profitable if they could ship garbage for cheap, a la Microsoft Teams or Internet Explorer. But Copilot is worse at integrating with Office than Claude!
This is because Copilot has aggressive context pruning to meet its price point of $20/month. That prevents the AI from meaningfully using tools or being multimodal or anything else their competitors have.
If they added a $200/month tier many of their issues would go away.
batiudrami 1 days ago [-]
Their target is not coders, it is the professional world who do 90% of their work in Office applications, like me. A $200/m model absolutely does not fly when rolled out to entire corporations. It needs to be a $20/user/month product.
But I agree, it sucks. It is the only AI we are able to use at work and for tasks that it should be good at (compare comment sheets against a deliverable register and assign to specific packages) and it just can’t do it. It can read the spreadsheet and understand them just fine but outputs are garbled nonsense.
khelavastr 1 days ago [-]
Copilot is actually significantly more reliable at technical tasks with SQL or C# than others, i've found. Do we have different use cases?
Copilot seems to hit the technical level I'm asking about much more reliably. It keeps a more grounded general semantic model.
resoluteteeth 7 hours ago [-]
You might be using different copilots since there are approximately three different Microsoft copilot products
Are you using the one that's part of Microsoft 365?
486sx33 1 days ago [-]
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maltalex 1 days ago [-]
“Copilot” is not one product, it’s around 15 different products, seriously.
I think that people often compare apples to oranges by comparing the “copilot” they have in Windows/Office/Teams etc to Claude Code which is ridiculous.
A better product to compare Claude Code to would be “Github Copilot CLI”, but I haven’t seen the two seriously compared anywhere.
manquer 20 hours ago [-]
In the context of knowledge workers, It is really about Claude Cowork against Microsoft Copilot suite for all their applications, which is what the OP is referencing ?
Github Copilot can use Claude APIs and has its own problems and challenges.
Microsoft AI performance is primarily not being affected by Github - while significant is much much smaller part of the enterprise revenue stream and their DAU compared to their Office suite apps.
Same for their PR exposure. It is lot more likely to here about Copilot in the office context than Github outside of small niche's like this forum.
quantummagic 20 hours ago [-]
That's on Microsoft for their choice of naming/branding.
maltalex 20 hours ago [-]
Absolutely. They've made the same mess with "Copilot" as with ".NET" in the early 00's [0]. Everything was ".NET" from consumer oriented services (".NET Passport"), to "Visual Studio .NET" without anyone understanding what ".NET" was.
Now it's "Microsoft Copilot" which is different from "Microsoft 365 Copilot", which is different from "Copilot Chat" and from "GitHub Copilot", and the many other flavors.
It's a mess.
Still, their developer-focused offering seems to be "GitHub Copilot", which among other things includes "GitHub Copilot CLI" [1], their terminal-based agent. It's not bad.
I've been a C# developer on and off since the dotnet core/standard split. I still have no clue what .NET was ever supposed to mean.
browningstreet 19 hours ago [-]
We have copilot at work integrated very deeply in our E5 landscape. It def sucks in Office, and I can break Copilot very easily when building small notebooks. It often crashes and the next page build in a notebook doesn’t come close to the previous iteration. That’s maddening.
But, the Teams integration for meeting summaries and in-meeting “what did Bob just say about the data center project?” prompts is magical and very useful. If you live in meetings or are trying not to. They need to put that team on rescue duty.
joshstrange 9 hours ago [-]
I have no interest in Copilot from Microsoft in general but I do like GitHub Copilot overall. That said, I’m _very_ interested in a viable alternative. I only use it for “fancy autocomplete” and have zero use for the agent/chat capabilities (I use Claude Code for that). It’s been a year or so since I looked at and tried alternatives but when I last did, copilot was the best IMHO.
What are people using as an alternative?
SilverElfin 21 hours ago [-]
It’s odd to me how much Microsoft over committed to Copilot. They added unwanted Copilot buttons to laptops. They renamed Office to Copilot. And in the end, it’s a terrible product anyways. They can only get away with this because of the control they have over OEMs, distribution channels, and the inability for consumers to opt out of all of thus.
Meanwhile startups can’t compete fairly because they don’t have the same channels to flood with their own branding.
joe_mamba 1 days ago [-]
Copilot was by far the worst for coding. Not that the code snippets it would generate were not good, but due to the insane number of bugs in its UI. It would just spit out blank blocks thinking they contained code. When I asked it to repeat the steps which were empty, it would generate the same empty blocks like "here's your code" lol
How TF can you go to market with such bugs.
vrighter 13 hours ago [-]
i can't even upload co e properly because it gets mangled
whobre 1 days ago [-]
In stock price, no the earnings
esalman 17 hours ago [-]
Kind of ongoing theme in tech industry and beyond. "Investors" will punish every stock unless company announces mass layoffs. My company is posting 10% year over year growth yet stocks keep falling.
vrganj 1 days ago [-]
If one were to think a major stock market crash was coming up, led by the AI bubble bursting, but reinforced by the major self-own that is the Iran war, how would one best prepare ones investments?
dehrmann 1 days ago [-]
Either you need the cash now and are already in short-term treasuries or you're it it for the long-term and you'll be laughing at this question when the Dow hits 100k.
gljiva 1 days ago [-]
One should either weather out the storm or if one wants to cash out soon or manage their portfolio more closely they would pick the defensive assets they trust the most and hold until they stop thinking the stock market crash is coming up or stop trusting those assets. If they really think the crash is imminent, maybe investing some excess money into shorting the market while setting trailing stop loss would be a fun activity that might turn profitable
VohuMana 1 days ago [-]
The advice I have heard is if you think there will be a significant drop in the market you liquidate all your holdings while they are still high and then rebuy when the price is low. Granted this is a gamble though, if you’re wrong then you just sold all your stock and are no longer participating in the market plus you need to pay capital gains tax
readthenotes1 1 days ago [-]
Did you hear this advice from 100 broke people or one lucky schmuck?
integralid 14 hours ago [-]
This is significantly safer than shorting that some people here suggest.
You can't lose money sitting on cash. While when shorting your potential loss is infinite.
iugtmkbdfil834 1 days ago [-]
Dunno, but yesterday was the first time ever I felt confident shorting nearly across the board. Nearly.
chistev 1 days ago [-]
If everyone (most people) think the same, shouldn't you do the opposite?
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Etc.
Ekaros 1 days ago [-]
I don' think that logic is intended for the top... It is what you should do when you are closing to bottom or are recovering already but most of the market does not yet see it.
Being greedy at the top will take longest time to recover. Catching the falling knife.
vrganj 1 days ago [-]
That might be the case if the market was completely abstract and removed from ground truths.
My feelings about these things don't come from markets.
2OEH8eoCRo0 1 days ago [-]
I think a crash is coming and I do nothing. I rebalance my stock/bond split and keep a large emergency fund as per usual.
Not investing advice, I’ve reallocated away from US domestic equities to international equities (VXUS) as a majority of a portfolio. This hedges against a correction from overweight Mag 7 exposure and US economic growth impairment from current policies (imho).
Other than buying oil futures, probably selling to cash and getting ready to buy when it hits the fan.
486sx33 1 days ago [-]
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gedy 1 days ago [-]
You can go all cash so not risking leverage via shorts, etc. But a lot of folks think that's dumb. I feel better being in cash right now as the mental stress of big loses in middle age is not worth the missed gains if I'm wrong. To each their own.
testing22321 1 days ago [-]
You don’t think the US dollar will take a dive along with US stocks?
teeray 21 hours ago [-]
If your debts are also denominated in USD, their value will be fixed relative to your cash assets. This assumes a fixed rate, of course, but a 30 year fixed is common in the US and makes up a substantial portion of most folks’ debt.
suzzer99 22 hours ago [-]
I have a big chunk in FXE (like owning Euros) precisely for this reason.
JoshuaDavid 1 days ago [-]
What specific thing(s) are you worried that USD will take a dive relative to?
Then once you have an answer to that question, that might point you towards what you want to be long.
9dev 23 hours ago [-]
Traders could start buying their oil using Yuan, for example. That’s not a theoretical anymore
pfannkuchen 15 hours ago [-]
What percent of dollars are tied up in in-flight oil transactions? And I suppose also in accounts that will be used for oil transactions in the planned future? That’s the mechanism for that supporting the value of the dollar, right, like, increased dollar demand via being used for oil market transactions?
9dev 12 hours ago [-]
The point is that the Petrodollar system requires countries to buy US treasuries to be able to buy oil. That is what makes borrowing cheap for the US, and what keeps the dollar demand up.
vrganj 1 days ago [-]
How would buying Euros compare in terms of exposure?
readthenotes1 24 hours ago [-]
The USD could take a dive against: yuan, eu, gbp, rial, gold, silver, platinum, WTI, SPY, etc.
Only a few of them will matter on a day-to-day basis if you're currently in the US with assets valued in USD.
vrganj 24 hours ago [-]
Couldn't you just exchange your EUR for USD as needed? Use it as your reserve currency?
VirusNewbie 1 days ago [-]
Microsoft is one of the least likely large companies to benefit from an AI boom. They don’t have the capacity to support OpenAI and their own foundational models, they aren’t providing a compelling story for wrapping OpenAI, windows continues to suck…
OpenAI signed an agreement with GCP , that should say a lot.
keeda 23 hours ago [-]
OpenAI also signed an agreement with AWS. And Anthropic has signed on with Microsoft as well as GCP.
The underlying dynamic is that no single cloud provider has the capacity required to host all the demand, so the frontier AI labs have no choice but to diversify for their infrastructure needs.
ledauphin 18 hours ago [-]
can you elaborate on this? diversifying compute doesn't create more compute - is it that the different LLM vendors have different peak times and so spreading themselves over more compute vendors spreads peak load?
jamwil 16 hours ago [-]
Huh? If I need 10 bananas and my local shop only has 5 bananas available I need to go to multiple stores to satisfy my ravenous banana craving.
integralid 14 hours ago [-]
Yes but if there are three banana shops around and there are five banana addicted people living nearby the number of bananas available on average for every person is not 15.
In other words, if all ai companies need more compute that a single provider can provide, then there's just not enough of it. So the question "why everyone partners with everyone" must have a different answer.
keeda 7 minutes ago [-]
It's not really "creating more compute" it's just a natural outcome of everyone desperately grabbing whatever becomes available. The dynamics make sense for all parties involved.
Firstly, it's very clear now that everyone is seriously crunched for capacity (like, each of the hyperscalers' backlogs -- i.e. capacity for which payment is committed, but as yet unsatisfied -- are in the double-digit billions.)
So as the compute providers bring more capacity online, everyone with demand wants to get a slice of that. Like, why would anyone NOT dive in and try to secure some capacity for themselves? Especially when the rate of capacity growth is constrained by the availability of GPUs and energy and data center buildouts, which is measured in years.
On the flip side, why would the compute providers NOT want multiple customers? It creates competition and drives prices up.
There are likely other forces at play too. For one, none of the parties - the model providers and the compute providers, with some of them like Google being both -- wants to get too dependent on any of the other parties, but they also want to secure a slice of each others' future growth, so they're all partnering with each other. Obviously, Google wants Gemini to win and Microsoft wants Copilot to win, but as a hedge, they'll be happy hosting their competitors' products and taking a cut.
This is partly the origin of the "circular investments" concerns. The scale at which this industry is growing, all these players have enormous mountains of money that they must invest to secure their future, but they are also the only players that can operate at this scale, and so the only place they can invest that money in is each other.
chris_money202 1 days ago [-]
Once we are able to run language models on any consumer hardware with good T/s Windows will become an absolute powerhouse just like it did in gaming with DirectX. Any application will be able to be AI infused and the API to do so will be consistent and free to the business offering it.
pjmlp 1 days ago [-]
Which is why they now are finally listing to customers.
1 days ago [-]
rvz 1 days ago [-]
This is a leading indicator for what is to come after the IPOs of SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic this year.
and it is not good.
throwaway132448 1 days ago [-]
With any luck they've missed their exit dumping window.
x0x0 1 days ago [-]
spacex is particular is desperately searching for a bagholder. Leveraging the obvious synergies between rockets (a mediocre business), xai (a horrid business), and social media that lost more than half it's already modest revenues...
Ekaros 1 days ago [-]
SpaceX has reasonable business in it. Not a hypergrowth one, but one which should be solid in long term.
To get that to work they just would need to discard Musk and most things with him. Stop trying to make starship a thing, dump everything attached to it. Make a long term plan to improve the core lift capacity with actually achievable improvements.
x0x0 24 hours ago [-]
> To get that to work they just would need to discard Musk and most things with him
I'll have a pet unicorn shitting rainbows before Musk leaves one of his toys or we see in-orbit leading-edge (or anything close to it) processor production. SpaceX is a decent albeit capital intensive business if it's valued at $100-200B. At the proposed $1.5T+ valuation for this dog... the bagholder search is on.
This would be profitable if they could ship garbage for cheap, a la Microsoft Teams or Internet Explorer. But Copilot is worse at integrating with Office than Claude!
This is because Copilot has aggressive context pruning to meet its price point of $20/month. That prevents the AI from meaningfully using tools or being multimodal or anything else their competitors have.
If they added a $200/month tier many of their issues would go away.
But I agree, it sucks. It is the only AI we are able to use at work and for tasks that it should be good at (compare comment sheets against a deliverable register and assign to specific packages) and it just can’t do it. It can read the spreadsheet and understand them just fine but outputs are garbled nonsense.
Copilot seems to hit the technical level I'm asking about much more reliably. It keeps a more grounded general semantic model.
Are you using the one that's part of Microsoft 365?
I think that people often compare apples to oranges by comparing the “copilot” they have in Windows/Office/Teams etc to Claude Code which is ridiculous.
A better product to compare Claude Code to would be “Github Copilot CLI”, but I haven’t seen the two seriously compared anywhere.
Github Copilot can use Claude APIs and has its own problems and challenges.
Microsoft AI performance is primarily not being affected by Github - while significant is much much smaller part of the enterprise revenue stream and their DAU compared to their Office suite apps.
Same for their PR exposure. It is lot more likely to here about Copilot in the office context than Github outside of small niche's like this forum.
Now it's "Microsoft Copilot" which is different from "Microsoft 365 Copilot", which is different from "Copilot Chat" and from "GitHub Copilot", and the many other flavors.
It's a mess.
Still, their developer-focused offering seems to be "GitHub Copilot", which among other things includes "GitHub Copilot CLI" [1], their terminal-based agent. It's not bad.
[0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microsoft_.NET_strategy
[1]: https://github.com/features/copilot/cli/
But, the Teams integration for meeting summaries and in-meeting “what did Bob just say about the data center project?” prompts is magical and very useful. If you live in meetings or are trying not to. They need to put that team on rescue duty.
What are people using as an alternative?
Meanwhile startups can’t compete fairly because they don’t have the same channels to flood with their own branding.
How TF can you go to market with such bugs.
You can't lose money sitting on cash. While when shorting your potential loss is infinite.
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Etc.
Being greedy at the top will take longest time to recover. Catching the falling knife.
My feelings about these things don't come from markets.
Not investing advice, I’ve reallocated away from US domestic equities to international equities (VXUS) as a majority of a portfolio. This hedges against a correction from overweight Mag 7 exposure and US economic growth impairment from current policies (imho).
https://www.axios.com/2026/03/27/stocks-trump-iran-nasdaq
https://totalrealreturns.com/n/VTI,VXUS?start=2025-01-20
https://www.apolloacademy.com/sp-500-concentration-approachi...
Then once you have an answer to that question, that might point you towards what you want to be long.
Only a few of them will matter on a day-to-day basis if you're currently in the US with assets valued in USD.
OpenAI signed an agreement with GCP , that should say a lot.
The underlying dynamic is that no single cloud provider has the capacity required to host all the demand, so the frontier AI labs have no choice but to diversify for their infrastructure needs.
In other words, if all ai companies need more compute that a single provider can provide, then there's just not enough of it. So the question "why everyone partners with everyone" must have a different answer.
Firstly, it's very clear now that everyone is seriously crunched for capacity (like, each of the hyperscalers' backlogs -- i.e. capacity for which payment is committed, but as yet unsatisfied -- are in the double-digit billions.)
So as the compute providers bring more capacity online, everyone with demand wants to get a slice of that. Like, why would anyone NOT dive in and try to secure some capacity for themselves? Especially when the rate of capacity growth is constrained by the availability of GPUs and energy and data center buildouts, which is measured in years.
On the flip side, why would the compute providers NOT want multiple customers? It creates competition and drives prices up.
There are likely other forces at play too. For one, none of the parties - the model providers and the compute providers, with some of them like Google being both -- wants to get too dependent on any of the other parties, but they also want to secure a slice of each others' future growth, so they're all partnering with each other. Obviously, Google wants Gemini to win and Microsoft wants Copilot to win, but as a hedge, they'll be happy hosting their competitors' products and taking a cut.
This is partly the origin of the "circular investments" concerns. The scale at which this industry is growing, all these players have enormous mountains of money that they must invest to secure their future, but they are also the only players that can operate at this scale, and so the only place they can invest that money in is each other.
and it is not good.
To get that to work they just would need to discard Musk and most things with him. Stop trying to make starship a thing, dump everything attached to it. Make a long term plan to improve the core lift capacity with actually achievable improvements.
I'll have a pet unicorn shitting rainbows before Musk leaves one of his toys or we see in-orbit leading-edge (or anything close to it) processor production. SpaceX is a decent albeit capital intensive business if it's valued at $100-200B. At the proposed $1.5T+ valuation for this dog... the bagholder search is on.